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Forecast confidence

Not just the number. How much to trust it.

Every Beacon forecast carries a confidence reading built from what's actually feeding it. You see the score, what's holding it down, and what to fix first.

Recurring revenue · Dec 2027
$21.0M
Range $18.7M – $23.3M
70 · Moderate Held back by a CRM sync that stopped nine days ago.
The problem

The forecast arrives with no idea how good it is.

The board deck
Shows one forecast number, formatted and confident, on the same slide every quarter.
The catch
Nobody in the room can tell a solid number from a shaky one.
The spreadsheet model
Built by one person, from growth rates typed into cells and never revisited.
Never sees
Half the accounts went stale. The number looked exactly the same.
The BI dashboard
Refreshes on schedule and renders whatever data happened to arrive.
Never sees
A pipeline that stopped syncing nine days ago.
Every forecast looks equally certain. So the company bets the same way on a number it can trust and one it can't.
What builds it · what moves it

Switch off a source. Watch the range open up.

Confidence isn't a mood. It's built from four things you can name, and each one moves it by a known amount. Switch one off below.

What the forecast is reading
Billing −20
Live · every contract, synced today
Pipeline −14
Stale · CRM last synced 9 days ago
Account coverage −18
92% of recurring revenue mapped
History −12
9 months · no full renewal cycle yet

Illustrative — Kestrel, $14.6M recurring revenue. The real reading updates itself the moment a source changes.

Forecast confidence
70/100
Moderate
Where it lands · Dec 2027
$18.7M – $23.3M
$12M $16M $20M $24M TODAY SEP 2025 DEC 2027 TARGET $21.0M
ActualForecastConfidence rangeTarget

Usable, not committable. Treat it as a direction, not a promise — the range is wider than most of the decisions riding on it.

Fix first

Reconnect the CRM sync. Biggest single lift available: +14.

What it unlocks

Confidence decides what runs without you.

Automation isn't a switch you flip once. Its reach follows the reading above — it widens as the data earns it, and pulls back the moment it doesn't.

85 and up
Steer on it
High confidence
You are here
Runs on its own

Renewal plays go out. Spend shifts inside the guardrails. The board pack publishes itself.

Still waits for you

Anything that moves a target, a price or a headcount plan.

60 to 84
Recommend, don’t act
Moderate confidence
You are here
Runs on its own

Watching and flagging. Every recommendation arrives with its reason and its range attached.

Still waits for you

Anything that spends money or reaches a customer. You approve each one.

Under 60
Stop and say so
Low confidence
You are here
Runs on its own

Nothing. The forecast still publishes, with the gap named on the face of it.

Still waits for you

Everything — and the first thing you see is what to reconnect.

Where you see it

The reading travels with the number.

Computed once, attached to the forecast itself. Wherever that number turns up, its reading turns up with it — nobody restates it, and nobody goes looking for it.

In Beacon · Forecast
Recurring revenue · Dec 2027
$21.0M 70

Range $18.7M – $23.3M. Tap the chip for the four inputs behind it and what each is worth.

On the number, not buried in a settings page.

Board pack · FY27
Forecast · full year
$21.0M 70

Published with its range and the one input holding it down: CRM sync, 9 days stale.

The board reads the number and its worth together.

Your Slack · #revenue
Can we commit the Q3 hiring plan?

The forecast supports it at the midpoint, but not at the low end of the range.

70 Held — this plan needs 85.

The agent says why it held, in the number’s own terms.

Data integrity + forecast confidence

One keeps your numbers honest. The other tells you what they’re worth.

98%
Data integritychecked and complete

Your numbers are kept true.

Connected at source, checked continuously, complete. Nothing quietly rots underneath what you report.

See data integrity → You’re here
91%
Forecast confidencesafe to act on

And you know what they’re worth.

Every forecast arrives with a reading, so you know which numbers to bet on and which to hold.

See forecast confidence → You’re here

Illustrative

One without the other is just a tidier guess.

One reading, one meaning

Every forecast asks for trust. This one shows its work.

Computed once, attached to the forecast, and the same for every person and every agent that reads it. Ask twice, get the same answer twice.

Forecast confidence

Find out what your forecast is actually worth.

Start free. Every number carries its reading from the first day you connect a source.