ShipsAt launchWave 2Wave 3Wave 4
Sales forecasting

Know where the quarter lands. Weeks before it does.

A live sales forecast built from every deal and sharpened by how customers actually retain and expand — one number sales and finance both trust, re-forecast every day.

The forecast nobody trusts

Sales says one number. Finance carries another. The board hears a third.

Everyone forecasts the same quarter and lands somewhere different — then argues about whose number is real. And whatever you settle on is a guess that's already out of date by the time the meeting ends.

Sales commits
$1.4M
Built from
Rep-by-rep optimism, typed into the CRM by hand.
The catchNobody discounts the deals that always slip.
Finance carries
$1.0M
Built from
Last quarter's win rate, discounted again for safety.
The catchIt punishes the deals that will actually land.
The board hears
$1.2M
Built from
The average of two numbers, split down the middle.
The catchA number nobody in the room actually believes.
Three numbers for one quarter.None built the same way, and all of them stale the moment a deal moves.
Where the quarter lands

One forecast, built from every open deal.

Closed-won so far, plus what's genuinely going to land — each deal weighted by how its segment actually closes, drawn forward to quarter-end against the target.

Where does Q3 land?
$1.18MBehind target
Quarter target$1.25M
Gap−$70k
Coverage1.4×
$1.25M $0 Target · $1.25M Today $1.18M forecast $640k closed
Actual (closed-won) Forecast + coverage band Target

Illustrative — the forecast is your real cumulative bookings, drawn to quarter-end. The band is the honest range, not a single false line.

Traced to the deals

Not a growth-rate guess. Every dollar is a real deal.

This is the forecast, deal by deal: each open opportunity, its win probability, and what it contributes once you weight it. Beacon re-weights every deal as new signals come in — so the number rebuilds itself daily, not at quarter-end.

DealWin probabilityARRForecast
Ashfield
Best case Enterprise
55%
$186k
$102k
Blackpine
Commit Enterprise
90%
$110k
$99k
Northwind
Best case Enterprise
65%
$150k
$98k
Vantage Row
Commit Mid-market
85%
$80k
$68k
Cedarline
Commit Mid-market
80%
$70k
$56k
Dunmore
Commit Mid-market
75%
$72k
$54k
Fairmont
Best case Mid-market
50%
$90k
$45k
Harbor Point
Best case SMB
40%
$48k
$19k
Open pipeline · $541k weighted across 8 deals + $640k already closed = $1.18M forecast

Illustrative — forecast = win probability × ARR, summed. Each probability is weighted by how that segment actually closes, and re-reads every night as deals move.

The whole lifecycle, forecasted

Every deal carries its segment's curves — for years, not one quarter.

The day Beacon sees the deal, it already knows how its segment retains, expands and costs to serve — and it re-runs this at any point in the customer's life, not just at close. So the forecast isn't just this quarter's bookings; it's the revenue, margin and cash this one deal throws off over its whole life. Company-level is simply every deal, summed.

Blackpine — revenue over five years.
one deal · Enterprise
Year 1
$110k
Year 2
$128k
Year 3
$148k
Year 4
$164k
Year 5
$178k

Includes expansion — the seat growth and upgrades this segment reliably adds. Year 1 is the booking; the rest is what the account becomes.

What Blackpine costs to keep — support, success, infra.
per year
Year 1 onboarding
$40k
Year 2
$28k
Year 3
$30k
Year 4
$33k
Year 5
$36k

Front-loaded: onboarding makes Year 1 the heaviest. It settles once they're live, then drifts up gently with usage — the cost curve finance never sees at deal time.

The cash Blackpine actually throws off.
operating cash / year
Year 1
$52k
Year 2
$88k
Year 3
$104k
Year 4
$118k
Year 5
$130k

Revenue minus cost-to-serve and collection timing. Thin in Year 1 while onboarding is paid down, then compounding — and it flows straight into the company cash & runway plan.

Gross margin, after cost-to-serve.
vs 74% target
74% target 64%78%80%81%82% Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5

Climbs as heavy first-year onboarding amortizes — 64% in Year 1 to 82% by Year 5, crossing the target in Year 2. The line finance actually cares about.

Net revenue retention, year over year.
>100% = net expansion
100% — break-even 100%116%116%111%109% Year 1Year 2Year 3Year 4Year 5

Expansion outruns churn every year — the compounding that makes this deal worth far more than its first-year ARR. This is the curve that carries the whole revenue forecast.

Illustrative — one deal's forecast; the company view is every deal's curves, summed. Each curve is the segment's real behaviour, not a flat average.

Re-forecast every day

The forecast moves the day the deals move. Not at quarter-end.

Every night Beacon re-reads the pipeline and rebuilds the number — and tells you exactly what changed and why. No forecast-call scramble, no month-old spreadsheet.

What moved today+$30k
Yesterday $1.15M → today $1.18M. Three deals moved overnight.
BlackpineVerbal yes — moved into Commit.+$55k
Fairmont (new)Fresh opportunity — entered Best case.+$25k
Kestrel LabsWent silent — slipped out of the quarter.−$50k
Net change todayForecast rebuilt, sales and finance both updated.+$30k

Illustrative — the same deals from your Sales intelligence board, rolled up into one live number.

Sealed, then graded

Every forecast is sealed — then the engine learns from it.

Lock a forecast and it's sealed into the unified revenue forecast — a snapshot you can replay, deal by deal. When the quarter closes, Beacon grades it against what happened and recalibrates the probability engine, with your sales team in the loop. Variance drops, confidence climbs, every cycle.

1Seal the forecast 2Replay & analyze variance 3Sales calibration 4Engine recalibrates
QuarterForecast confidenceVariance
Q1 2025
±14%
Q2 2025
±11%
Q3 2025
±8%
Q4 2025
±6%
Q1 2026
±4%

Illustrative — a sealed forecast is a reproducible snapshot: same inputs, same result, every replay. Confidence and variance shown are the engine's own track record, quarter over quarter.

One number, both signatures

Sales and finance stop arguing about the forecast.

Because it's built one way, from the same deals, weighted by the same lifecycle intelligence — there's nothing left to reconcile.

Before — two forecasts, one argument

Sales talks up the commit. Finance quietly discounts it. The real number surfaces at quarter-end, when it's too late to do anything about it.

With Beacon — one forecast, both trust it

Sales sees the deals; finance sees the same roll-up, weighted by real retention and expansion. One number, updated daily, that both teams can sign.

And it flows both ways: the retention and expansion intelligence finance relies on comes back to sales as sharper deal probabilities — so the segments that actually pay off are the ones reps are told to chase.
Stop guessing the quarter

A forecast you'd bet the quarter on.

Free at any size. Connect your CRM and see your live forecast this week.